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Category:<\/strong> Ecological<\/p>\n Subcategory:<\/strong> Risk and Opportunity Assessment \u2013 Bow-tie Analysis<\/p>\n Tool type:<\/strong> Conceptual and semi-quantitative risk assessment framework (ISO 31000-compliant)<\/p>\n Input data:<\/strong><\/p>\n Narrative storylines and scenarios developed for BBTs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Stakeholder knowledge (qualitative and semi-quantitative)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Data on drivers, activities, pressures, and biodiversity change (from monitoring, models, or expert judgement)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n References to EU MSFD indicators and descriptors where possible<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Output:<\/strong><\/p>\n Bow-tie diagrams showing causes, consequences, and management options<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Clear differentiation between prevention and mitigation\/adaptation measures<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Framework for integrating models and indicators (e.g. Bayesian Belief Networks)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Support for scenario-based planning and stakeholder communication<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Target users:<\/strong> Researchers, policymakers, regulators, marine managers, practitioners<\/p>\n Location tested:<\/strong> Applied across Broad Belt Transects (BBTs)<\/strong> in MARBEFES (case study locations include North & South Svalbard, Baltic, North Sea, Irish Sea, Biscay, Mediterranean, etc., depending on storyline selection)<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_tab][et_pb_tab title=”Technical details” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Version:<\/strong> Final Guidance, Version 3.0 (October 2023)<\/p>\n MARBEFES-WP5.1_Bow-tie Guidance\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Publication:<\/strong> Internal MARBEFES WP5.1 Deliverable \u2013 Guidance for Bow-tie Storyline Creation and Analysis at BBTs<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rights:<\/strong> EU Horizon Europe Grant Agreement no. 101060937 and UKRI Grant no. 10048815<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n [\/et_pb_tab][et_pb_tab title=”Developer information” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Task Leader:<\/strong> Mike Elliott (IECS Ltd.)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Authors:<\/strong> Mike Elliott, Katie Smyth, Anita Franco, Roland Cormier (IECS Ltd.)<\/p>\n MARBEFES-WP5.1_Bow-tie Guidance\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Project coordination:<\/strong><\/p>\n General Coordinator: Jan Marcin W\u0119s\u0142awski<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Scientific Manager: Julie Bremner<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Project Manager: Joanna Przedrzymirska-Zi\u00f3\u0142kowska<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n [\/et_pb_tab][et_pb_tab title=”Citation” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Burdon et al. (2018) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Cormier et al. (2013, 2018, 2019, 2022) ICES Reports; Science of the Total Environment<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Elliott et al. (2013, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2023) Marine Pollution Bulletin; Ocean & Coastal Management<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Defeo & Elliott (2021) Marine Pollution Bulletin<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Barnard & Elliott (2015) Environmental Science & Policy<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n [\/et_pb_tab][et_pb_tab title=”Contact” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Lead contact:<\/strong> Mike Elliott \u2013 Mike.Elliott@iecs.ltd\n
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